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This is 0.8 percentage points lower than the March results, and dramatically lower than the February simulations noted in the link above. When compared to both historical outcomes and traditional financial theory, the probability of a large monthly decline in the index remains low.To readers: I try to publish the results from C J once or twice a month. If you would like to read more of C J’s simulation results in the future, please click on the follow button at the top of this article next to my name.Disclaimer: This article contains model based projections that are forward looking and, as with any quantitative model, are subject to uncertainties and modeling assumptions.

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